60/40投資組合已死?富時羅素建議增持黃金

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The 60/40 Portfolio: A Detective’s Case File on the “Zombie Strategy”
*Case #2024-10: Another investor walks into my office, clutching a faded 60/40 portfolio printout like it’s a treasure map. “Mia,” they say, “is this thing still alive?” Dude, seriously—let’s dust for fingerprints.*
For decades, the 60/40 portfolio was the golden child of balanced investing—60% stocks for growth, 40% bonds for stability. It was the financial equivalent of mom’s meatloaf: predictable, comforting, and *supposedly* foolproof. But after the market chaos of recent years (looking at you, 2022), even Wall Street’s staunchest traditionalists are side-eyeing this relic like a suspicious thrift-store blazer. Is it vintage or just *outdated*?

Exhibit A: The Diversification Illusion
Here’s the plot twist: stocks and bonds aren’t the dynamic duo they used to be. Back in the day, bonds acted as a shock absorber when stocks tanked. But during the 2022 tariff panic, the 60/40 playbook backfired—investors lost $1,912 per $10,000 compared to those who just bet on the S&P 500. *Ouch.*
Why? Bond yields got crushed by near-zero interest rates, turning that “40” into dead weight. FTSE Russell’s analysts now whisper about gold and real estate like they’re trading intel at a speakeasy. Even Larry Fink’s pushing “resilient equities” (translation: stuff that won’t collapse when the Fed sneezes).
Exhibit B: The Correlation Conspiracy
Forensic analysis reveals a shady relationship: stocks and bonds now move in creepy sync. Imagine your “balanced” portfolio dancing to the same doomscroll TikTok—no bueno. The 60/40’s magic relied on them *not* holding hands during crises, but 2022 proved they’ll happily sink together.
Vanguard’s still pitching a “tweaked” 60/40, suggesting tactical shifts (more stocks in sunshine, fewer in storms). But let’s be real—that’s like putting rain tires on a horse-drawn carriage. Meanwhile, iShares’ 60/40 ETF investors learned the hard way that “balance” doesn’t mean “bulletproof.”
Exhibit C: The Alternative Suspects
The real mystery? Why cling to 60/40 when the evidence points elsewhere. Private equity, infrastructure, even crypto (gasp!) are crashing the party. BlackRock’s memo basically said, “Folks, it’s time to leave the 1980s.”
Yet—*plot twist*—the 60/40 staged a 30% comeback from late 2022 to 2024. Cue the defenders: “See? It’s alive!” But dig deeper: that rebound required Herculean patience and a tolerance for rollercoaster dips. Most humans panic-sell before the rebound. *Allegedly.*

Verdict: Not Dead, Just Needs a Makeover
The 60/40 isn’t a corpse—it’s a *zombie*. It shuffles along, occasionally useful but clearly missing a few brain cells. The lesson? Diversify beyond textbook ratios. Mix in alternatives, stay flexible, and for Pete’s sake, stop treating bonds like a security blanket.
As I tell my clients: “Your portfolio shouldn’t be a time capsule.” Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got a lead on some undervalued vintage denim. *Case closed.*
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(Word count: ~720)

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